Most Canadians who use cannabis now purchase from legal retailers instead of illegal dealers, according to a study published in the International Journal of Drug Policy.
The research revealed that of the £6.72 billion spent on cannabis in Canada in the 12 months before September 2022, £5.23 billion went to legal sources, representing nearly 80% of all cannabis sales. Canada legalised cannabis in 2018 with the primary objective of illegal sale of black market cannabis. Since then, many people have made the transition to legal cannabis, but there have not yet been any studies conducted that have discovered how many Canadians have done so.
Researchers used ‘demand-side’ data evaluation methods in estimating the size of the Canadian cannabis market by comparing data from two different sources.
The team analysed data provided by 5,656 participants from the International Cannabis Policy Study about where they purchased cannabis. To verify accuracy, they cross-checked responses with actual cannabis retail sales data and found estimates aligned to within 2 percentage points.
Purchasing figures were then compared to data taken from the Canadian Community Health Survey, which told them the number of Canadians who used cannabis.
Previous studies have used total amount of dried flower sold to estimate the size of the Canadian market, however researchers considered this metric to be an unreliable one due to the large number of different cannabis products on the market now such as concentrates and vape pens that require a large amount of dry flower to produce the finished product. This factor, researchers believe, could skew the results.
The research found that dried flower accounts for approximately 55% of legal cannabis expenditures, with concentrates (12%), oral liquids (11%), vaping liquids (10%), and edibles (8%) making up most of the remainder.
“Since the opening of legal retail stores in Canada in October 2018, legal retail sales have increased in a linear fashion, with no indication of a ‘plateau’ up to five years after legalisation,” the study said.
“The findings provide evidence of substantial transition from the illegal to the legal market in the five years since the legalization of non-medical cannabis in Canada. Since the opening of legal retail stores in Canada in October 2018, legal retail sales have increased in a linear fashion, with no indication of a ‘plateau’ up to five years after legalization.”
While the authors did acknowledge some limitations to the study, overall they concluded that the evidence suggests cannabis legalisation has achieved its primary goal of shifting sales from the illegal to the legal market.
“Collectively, the evidence suggests that Canada has made substantial progress in achieving one of the primary objectives of the Cannabis Act, reducing illegal cannabis and transitioning consumers to legal cannabis sources. Future research should consider differences by province, including the extent to which differences in provincial retail structures and regulations are associated with different rates of legal market capture and overall consumption levels.”
